Stability of international environmental agreements under isoelastic utility

There is now a growing consensus that ratifying International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) is the most effective way to tackle transboundary pollution problems. While the social benefit function (SBF) critically affects emission choices as well as decisions to ratify IEAs, the related economic literature has mainly concentrated on scenarios where the marginal SBF is linear. Using climatic data, I find that the linear marginal SBF case does not match data and isoelastic SBFs fit data better. In the more realistic, but not yet explored, context of isoelastic SBFs, I reconsider incentives to ratify IEAs. My analysis gives rise to novel conclusions. For instance, changes in the scale of damages do not affect the level of cooperation. When the scale of damages is small, variations of the SBF parameter reveal that large coalitions including the coalition of all countries are stable, but only when the potential gain from cooperation is sufficiently high.     

Asymmetry,Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts

Forecasts are a central component of policymaking; the Federal Reserve's forecasts are published in a document called the Greenbook. Previous studies of the Greenbook's inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular subperiods, for example, before and after the Volcker appointment. In these papers, forecasts are analyzed in isolation, assuming policymakers value them independently. We analyze the Greenbook forecasts in a framework in which the forecast errors for different variables are allowed to interact. We find that allowing the losses to interact makes the unemployment forecasts virtually symmetric, the output forecasts symmetric prior to the Volcker appointment, and the inflation forecasts symmetric after the onset of the Great Moderation.     

Is heterogeneous capital depreciation important for estimating firm-level productivity? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

This paper contributes to the existing literature on estimating firm-level production functions. Using Chinese manufacturing survey data, we employ the firm-level heterogeneous capital depreciation rate to measure firms’ investment and assess its role using Olley and Pakes (1996) (OP) production function estimation technique. Although there is some ongoing debate on the econometric soundness of the OP technique, we argue quantitatively that the heterogeneous depreciation rate muffles the measurement error associated with the key input demand investment. In our sample, it significantly narrows the gap of total factor productivity (TFP) estimates between the OP technique and a state-of-the-art estimation method that works without investment. We further reveal that the improved performance primarily originates from the dynamic evolution in the distribution of the capital depreciation rate.     

媒体关注与企业创新绩效

媒体关注是会发挥信息功能的正面效应进而促进企业创新，还是会发挥负面效应给管理者形成外部压力从而抑制企业创新？在梳理媒体关注信息功能的基础上，基于2010~2018年A股上市公司数据分析媒体关注与企业创新绩效的关系。研究发现：媒体关注对企业创新绩效起到促进作用，在控制了内生性问题后，这一结论依然成立。通过对报道性质进行区分，发现非负面报道对创新绩效的促进作用更加明显，而负面报道并没有显著降低企业创新绩效。在影响机制分析中发现融资约束在媒体关注与企业创新绩效之间起到中介作用，即媒体关注通过缓解企业融资约束进而提高创新绩效。     

基于主体功能定位的湖北省县域乡村性空间分异研究

[目的]确立与主体功能区定位相协调的乡村发展类型与乡村政策,是促进城乡融合、乡村振兴的重要措施。[方法]以湖北省县域为空间单元,构建乡村性评价指标体系,并基于三次产业的产值结构,划分县域的乡村发展类型。[结果](1)2016年湖北省县域乡村性指数相对较高,乡村性呈现出东低西高的空间分布格局。乡村发展类型可划分为农业主导型、工业主导型、商旅服务型和均衡发展型,分别占县域总数的25.29%、16.1%、10.71%和48.28%。(2)重点开发区的乡村类型以工业主导型和商旅服务型为主,乡村类型主要是城镇化和工业化带动,市场、资本推动力和农民的自主选择突出;农产品主产区和重点生态功能区的乡村类型均以农业主导型和均衡发展型为主,不同的是农产品主产区的农业自然和生产条件优越、农耕文化根植,农业政策扶植,乡村类型是由农业现代化和产业化推动;重点生态功能区乡村类型受资源环境约束、经济基础及行政干预的推动。[结论]三大主体功能区下的乡村类型及驱动机制存在差异,并提出不同乡村振兴发展的政策建议。     

基于SFA模型的河南省粮食产量时空变化及投入要素影响

[目的]粮食问题影响着一个国家的国民经济发展和人民生产、生活,农业在整个社会生产活动中占有重要地位,河南省是全国农业大省,对河南省粮食产量进行分析具有重要的现实意义。[方法]以2005—2015年河南省各县粮食产量和投入要素为研究对象,将研究数据面板化,利用线性相关、随机前沿生产函数模型、脱钩分析等方法,运用ArcGIS 10.1、Eviews 8.0和SPSS 19.0等软件,对河南省各县粮食产量时空变化、投入要素影响程度和脱钩效应进行分析。[结果]模型运算结果表明文章选用模型效果较好,能够反映粮食产量的时空变化以及其与投入要素之间的关系,且符合河南省粮食产量实际情况。研究结果表明:(1)从时间上来看, 2005—2015年河南省粮食产量总体呈线性上升趋势;(2)从空间上来看,河南省中部、北部、东部和南部粮食产量较高,西部受地势因素影响粮食产量较低;(3)粮食产量与化肥施用折纯量、粮食播种面积、农民经营性收入、农药施用量、农业机械总动力和乡村农业人口呈正相关关系,与农村用电量呈负相关关系;(4)化肥施用折纯量、农村用电量、农药施用量存在脱钩效应,粮食播种面积、农民经营性收入、农业机械总动力不存在脱钩效应。[结论]应保持目前粮食播种面积不变,提高农业机械总动力,突出投入要素的影响,同时对河南省各县进行区域功能定位。     

Productivity impact of drought tolerant maize varieties under rainfall stress in Malawi: A continuous treatment approach

Drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties have received massive support in sub‐Saharan Africa because of their potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related maize yield losses. Using four waves of household farm panel data from six districts in Malawi, we examine the impact heterogeneity of this technology on maize productivity using a continuous treatment approach. We find strong evidence of positive correlation between maize yield and adoption of DT maize varieties. On average, an increase by one hectare in the area allocated to DT varieties increases maize yield by 547 Kg/ha representing a 44% increase from the average maize yield of 1,254 Kg/ha for our sample. Our findings give evidence that DT maize technology has potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related production losses. Policies that promote increased allocation of maize area to DT maize hold potential to enhance food security. Smallholder farmers especially in drought‐prone areas should be encouraged to allocate at least one‐third of the maize plot to DT varieties while breeders continue with the efforts of breeding a DT variety that is not only drought tolerant but also adapted to all weather conditions. More importantly, the government should ensure provision of timely ex ante weather information to guide farmers on decision‐making with respect to maize varietal choices.     

苹果种植适度规模经营研究*——以陕西省白水县为例

［目的］分析苹果种植户经济效益的影响因素，研究适合苹果种植的农地规模，提高白水县果农苹果种植的经济效益，探索苹果产业可持续发展经营模式，丰富以果蔬为主的集约型经济作物适度规模经营研究范围。［方法］采用实地调研法，对陕西省白水县230户苹果种植户进行问卷调查，从收益最大化角度，运用柯布道格拉斯生产函数对苹果生产的投入产出进行经济分析，构建收益最大化模型，测算白水县苹果种植的最适规模，分析苹果产量的影响因素，探讨劳动力投入、资本投入、有效面积和果农参加技术培训对苹果产出的影响和贡献程度，并用钱克明等对农地的适度经营规模定义进行结果验证，最后提出合理的政策建议。［结果］经过分析，在同等技术条件下，劳动力投入、资本投入、有效种植面积、果农参加技术培训的次数对苹果的产出具有显著影响。以农户收益最大化模型测算的劳均经营规模面积在0363~0447hm2（544~670亩）的可视为适度规模，根据钱克明等的适度经营规模目标值的计算，其函数解为550，在适度规模范围之内。即户均农地适度经营规模0751~0966hm2（1127~1449亩）。目前白水县苹果生产处于规模报酬递减阶段，农资市场环境和劳动力投入方面仍然存在短板。［结论］建议扩大白水县户均苹果种植面积，提升土地经营效益，从而增加果农收入，支持农业新型经营主体发展，创新发展模式； 建立新型职业农民培育体系，促进苹果种植户剩余劳动力转移，提高农民非农收入； 从法律上规范农村地区农资市场环境； 规范农户绿色生产经营行为，提高化肥的使用效率和开发新的高效肥料； 政府引导农地的适度规模集中，整合资源进行规模化、现代化的经营。     

动态能力理论视角下战略柔性对企业绩效的影响研究---差异化动态环境规制强度的调节效应

当前企业推进绿色转型进程、提升企业绩效,是实现高质量发展的重要途径。鉴于企业主动应对内外部因素联动影响的重要性,以动态能力理论视角,在探讨了企业变革发展驱动机制的基础上,尝试构建动态环境规制嵌入下的战略柔性与企业绩效的理论框架。分析并实证检验了战略柔性对企业绩效以及差异化强度的动态环境规制在二者关系中调节效应的作用机理和边界。研究结果显示,当前情境下,前瞻柔性、响应柔性对企业绩效均有显著的正向影响,且响应柔性的贡献度较高;两者交互效应亦能显著的正向影响企业绩效;表明企业对环境变化的预测、反应能力以及将两者协同配合是绿色转型发展的重要措施。一般强度的动态环境规制在前瞻柔性、响应柔性与企业绩效的关系中均不起显著的调节效应;高强度动态环境规制仅在响应柔性和企业绩效的关系中起显著负向调节效应;表明动态环境下,一般强度的政府规制政策对企业的决策和创新等行为更多的是无显著影响,充分尊重其自主发展;同时政府要根据环境变化,合理控制环境规制实施强度,谨防给企业应对环境冲击造成额外的负担。综合研究结果,提出企业加强多重柔性机制建设的力度和政府注重环境规制政策引导作用的策略,最终实现各利益相关者协同推进高质量发展的目标。     

Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?

Existing literature suggests that macroeconomic and institutional factors are the drivers of currency substitution. The persistent and significant incidence of currency substitution during the period of mixed performance of macroeconomic variables suggests the existence of a knowledge gap on the drivers of currency substitution during the era of rapid technological innovation. To contribute to this literature, we augmented the traditional money demand model of the determinants of currency substitution to introduce financial innovation. We use Nigerian data from 2005Q1 to 2019Q4 and Pesaran et al. (2001, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 ) autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to cointegration to estimate the models. The results confirm the presence of short-run and long-run relationships between financial technology and currency substitution in Nigeria. In effect, the deployment of financial technology in developing payment system infrastructure creates additional incentives for economic agents to hold foreign currency deposit. Economic managers must, therefore, mainstream credible monetary and fiscal policies to moderate the effect of financial innovation on currency substitution.